SUNDAY,  DECEMBER 14,  2008

NO STRAIN FOR BIDEN - AT 4:22 P.M. ET:  From The Politico: 

Joe Biden is laying plans to significantly shrink the role of the vice presidency in Barack Obama’s White House, according to an official familiar with his thinking.  It’s not just that Biden won’t sit in on Senate Democrats’ weekly caucus meetings – a privilege Republicans afforded outgoing Vice President Dick Cheney. He won’t have an office outside the House floor, as House Speaker Dennis Hastert gave Cheney early on.

Biden will not begin every day with his own intelligence briefing before sitting in on the president’s. He will not always be the last person Obama speaks to before making a decision.  He also will not, as a transition official calls it, operate a “shadow government” within an Obama administration.

COMMENT:  And we've heard that his Secret Service agents will be office temps.

SURPRISE VISIT - AT 10:09 A.M. ET:  FromAP:  BAGHDAD – President George W. Bush on Sunday made a farewell visit to Iraq, a place that defines his presidency for better or worse, just 37 days before he hands the war off to a successor who has pledged to end it.

COMMENT:  No one can say the man hasn't shown up.  Good move to visit Iraq.  This AP report gets in some digs at the president, but what else is new?   

THE LATEST LEDEEN

Posted at 9:45 a.m. ET

We often quote Michael Ledeen, the distinguished foreign-policy analyst, at Urgent Agenda.  Now we are privileged to quote his son, Gabe, a Marine officer who's served two tours in Iraq.  He is eloquent and direct about what he's found there.  He is also director of the Vets for Freedom Educational Institute. 

This is well worth reading:

Today marks the fifth anniversary of Saddam Hussein’s capture by U.S. forces, when he was pulled dirty, afraid, and alone from a hole in Tikrit, Iraq. Five years from that day, Iraqis continue to face a somewhat uncertain future fraught with challenges and perils. Critics of the war complain that there is no certainty that democracy can take root in Iraq, and lament the possibility that this “experiment” will fail. These cynics are correct in asserting that our achievements in Iraq remain fragile and potentially reversible, and they may be justified in their skepticism about an Iraqi democracy’s staying power. One thing is certain though: The Iraqi people, who have never had reason to, are now learning how to hope. They no longer face each day with the certainty that conditions are immutable and inevitable, as they had been forced to do for so many years under Saddam’s regime.

Saddam Hussein, his sons, and his supporters terrorized the people of Iraq and subjected them to violence and maltreatment without reason or restraint. His record of rape, torture, murder, and oppression is well documented but marginalized and deflected by critics who claim that the violence of the war overshadows Hussein’s heinous crimes. This argument does not, and cannot stand. During Saddam Hussein’s reign, Iraqis had no sense that the terror would ever end. The individual citizen had neither the right nor the ability to oppose Saddam’s henchmen, who took what they wanted, killed and raped at will, and tortured (think hooks, blowtorches, and electricity) to intimidate or eliminate potential enemies. The purpose of this evil was solely to maintain Saddam’s power and strengthen his regime by dominating the will of the people. He was held up as something more than human, above all laws and criticism and accountable to no one. Operation Desert Storm did little to give Iraqis lasting hope that Saddam would be defeated, and when he ruthlessly crushed the Shia and Kurds after the war without response from the West, they recognized it as another validation of Saddam’s invincibility.

When U.S. soldiers pulled Saddam Hussein from that hole in Tikrit, the spell that had held Iraqis captive for decades was broken. Suddenly, there was a glimmer of hope for a population who had never had the right to dream of a better life. That hope is what differentiates every day before December 13, 2003, from every day since. It is the hope that things will get better, that the individual life can mean something. That the next generation can live a better life than the current one, and that through effort and will the people can make tomorrow better than today. This hope is fundamental to meaningful human existence, but is often taken for granted by Americans who have never endured a life where its expression is denied by a cruel dictator. Some suggest that Saddam’s dictatorship, though cruel and oppressive, was the only way to effectively control the tribes, maintain order, and govern the country. Day by day the Iraqi people are proving them wrong; this is the legacy of December 13.

Wonderful, wonderful.  Like father, like son.

December 14, 2008.      Permalink          

BRITAIN IN THE CROSSHAIRS

Posted at 8:49 a.m. ET

The British prime minister, Gordon Brown, has made the stunning revelation that more than 20 terror attacks against Britain are being planned in Pakistan.

More than twenty serious terrorist plots to stage attacks in Britain are being planned in Pakistan, Gordon Brown said.

The Prime Minister named Pakistan as a haven for terrorists planning attacks in Britain, revealing that around three quarters of the most advanced plots monitored by MI5 are have Pakistani links.

Officials say that the Security Service is aware of around 30 serious plots at any given moment, suggesting that at least 21 of them are tied to Pakistani groups.

If this is true, how many plots are ongoing against the United States? It appears that the reporting on terror has taken on greater urgency in the UK than here.

On a visit to Islamabad, the Prime Minister delivered a blunt demand to President Ali Asif Zardari to improve his government's work to prevent al-Qaeda and other groups operating in the lawless area that borders Afghanistan.

"The time has come for action not words," Mr Brown told Mr Zardari.

As Renee Nielsen has reported to Urgent Agenda, it is accepted in India that the recent Mumbai terror attacks had their roots in Pakistan.

We have to be on guard here, especially during the transition to a new administration.  Recent articles indicate that we are very vulnerable, in our cities, to a Mumbai-type assault.  Hotels are particularly vulnerable.  Washington will be filled with visitors during the inauguration.  Because of the economic crisis, we have stopped thinking about terror.  Big mistake.

December 14, 2008.      Permalink          

MAYBE GARDENING WOULD BE A BETTER CHOICE - AT 7:53 A.M. ET:  From the New York Post:  Caroline Kennedy continued to contact New York politicians last week - presumably to test the waters about a Senate bid - even as Hillary Clinton allies piled on in fierce opposition.

COMMENT:  This really is an example of New York nerve.  Caroline Kennedy went all out for Barack Obama against Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.  Now she wants Hillary's seat in the United States Senate, although all she offers is her name.  Maybe some counseling is in order.  Or a phone call from Hillary.

BEEN THERE, DONE THAT - AT 7:44 A.M. ET:  An Israeli newspaper is reporting that Colin Powell is on the short list of prospects to be special envoy to the Mideast in an Obama administration.

COMMENT:  Very bad move.  First, it would look like a political payoff for his endorsement of Obama.  Second, Powell made it plain as SecState that he doesn't like to travel.  This job involves traveling, but expenses are reimbursed.  Third, there is no evidence that Powell has the detailed knowledge or diplomatic skill for the job.  Fourth, Powell is seen as at best uninterested in the war on terror. 

Other than that, he's a great candidate. 

SATURDAY,  DECEMBER 13,  2008

WHITE HOUSE TO THE "RESCUE" - AT 11:01 A.M. ET:  From The New York Times:   WASHINGTON — The Bush administration said on Friday that it was prepared to intervene to prevent the collapse of General Motors and Chrysler after Republican senators blocked a compromise proposal to rescue the automakers.

COMMENT:  So what was the Congressional thing all about, if the White House was ready to write the checks all along?

IT ISN'T EASY BEING GREEN - AT 10:32 A.M. ET:  From The Washington Times:   Former Vice President Al Gore will host a green inaugural ball the night before President-elect Barack Obama takes the oath of office. "The Green Ball: Inauguration of a New Green Economy" will be Jan. 19 at the Smithsonian's National Portrait Gallery.

COMMENT:  Let's start counting the number of people who arrive in 12 mpg limos.  And you can be sure that Al isn't coming by covered wagon.

REMEMBER IRAN?

Posted at 8:14 a.m.ET

Iranian-rights sparkplug Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi alerts me to this excellent analysis, by Amir Taheri, of the president elect's intention to negotiate with Iran.  Iran has been on the back burner recently, but don't expect that to last.  Their nuclear program is roaring ahead.  Taheri:

It was almost two years ago when Barack Obama unveiled his hope for establishing a dialogue with Tehran. Since then, his circle of admirers have presented that hope as an epoch-making innovation, a kind of magic wand that, once waved, would transform the Khomeinist regime from wolf to lamb.

Last Monday, however, Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former President of the Islamic Republic and still a key player in Tehran's complex political game, decided to set the record straight...

..."It is thirty years that you have always wanted to talk to us," he said, addressing Obama. "And it is thirty years that we have refused to talk to you. How could you expect us to talk to you now that you are fixing even heavier preconditions for such talks [to take place]?"

Translated:  The mullahs don't care who's president.  They negotiate only on their own terms.

Taheri points out that Carter, Reagan and Bush 41 all tried to reason with the mullahs, and all failed.  And...

President Bill Clinton went a step further by apologizing to the mullahs for unspecific wrongs that the US had supposedly done to Iran. He lifted some of the sanctions imposed by Carter, Reagan and Bush, and ignored FBI reports documenting Tehran's involvement in attacks against American targets in the region.

Presenting his scheme with the grandiose title of "The Grand Bargain", Clinton offered the mullahs what amounted to a mini-Yalta agreement under which Iran would secure its own zone of influence in the region in exchange for recognizing a similar zone for the US.

The whole thing collapsed.

And the current Bush?

Bush ruled out bilateral talks because he had learned a crucial lesson from the failures of his predecessors. He knew that the mullahs had tantalized successive US administrations with the prospect of talks only to make sure that they faced no American moves against their regime. Once they were sure of that, they had no further interest in talks. However, even George W Bush was to end up being seduced by the prospect of a deal with the mullahs. In May 2006, his new Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice surprised the world by offering direct unconditional talks with the mullahs. Tehran simply ignored the American move. Rice will be leaving office without having received a formal response to her offer.

And Obama?

Rafsanjani showed that he has a far deeper understanding of the problem than Obama.

"Your problem is not with our nuclear program or human rights," he said. "Your problem is with the very nature of our regime."

We hope so.  We certainly hope so.  But Obama hasn't played his cards yet.

Finally...

For all that, it is quite possible that Tehran will welcome Obama's offer of direct talks in a bid to obtain assurances that the US will not help those who seek regime change in Tehran. However, one thing is certain: once the mullahs obtain what they want they will not be prepared to offer any concessions. Obama's head has a good chance of ending up next to those of his predecessors who deluded themselves into believing that they can make a fair deal with the mullahs.

Remember, Rafsanjani has already given the warning.

We have ignored so many warnings.  This will be one of the greatest challenges Obama will face.  He will face it together with his new secretary of state, Hillary Clinton.  It won't take long for us to know where they really stand.

December 13, 2008.      Permalink          

CONGRESSMAN JACKSON WISHES TO EXPLAIN - AT 7:41 A.M. ET:  From AP:   CHICAGO (AP) -- A fundraiser held by Indian-American businessmen three days before Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich was arrested on corruption charges emerged Friday as a potentially key event in the federal investigation into whether he tried to sell President-elect Barack Obama's vacant Senate seat.  Questions are being raised about last Saturday's event for Blagojevich because Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.'s brother, Jonathan, was among those attending....

...Rep. Jackson, however, flatly denied that he or his brother were involved in a scheme for Blagojevich to peddle the Senate seat in return for up to $1.5 million in political contributions.

COMMENT:  We withhold judgment, but the timing of the fundraiser is a bit too convenient.

BE A CLOWN, BE A CLOWN - AT 7:32 A.M. ET:  From AP:   Former US president Jimmy Carter said Friday that he would have been "delighted" to meet Hizbullah officials and that he regrets the meeting didn't take place during his current visit to Lebanon...

... The former US leader had said he was ready to meet Hizbullah, but they refuse to meet current or former US presidents.

COMMENT:  The man continues to be a public embarrassment.  He has repeatedly violated respected tradition and interfered with American foreign policy since leaving office.  He grovels to foreign dictators, but seems to resent his own country.  Be gone with you.

THE BLOOD SPORT - AT 7:26 A.M. ET:  From The New York Post:   ALBANY - A powerful labor leader with strong ties to Sen. Hillary Clinton yesterday joined the growing ranks of Democrats bashing Caroline Kennedy as a possible successor to the former first lady in the US Senate.  "Caroline Kennedy, although I'm sure a fascinating and engaging person, simply doesn't have the experience or Washington know-how to get it done for New York," said Stuart Applebaum, president of the 100,000- member Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union.

COMMENT:  Caroline is probably toast.  It was a fantasy to believe that Hillary Clinton would allow Caroline Kennedy to have her seat in the Senate after Caroline campaigned for Obama in the primaries.  This is payback big time.